亚洲社会药学
亚洲社会药学

快速检索 年期检索

亚洲社会药学 ›› 2020, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (3): 145-152.

• • 上一篇    下一篇

Research on Prediction of the Scale of OTC Drug Market in China Based on Quantitative Analysis

Xu Yang 1*, Xu Lang 2, Xue Aoming 3   

  1. 1. Hainan Bikai Pharmaceutical Co., LTD., Haikou 570311, China; 2. Hainan Huiyuantang Pharmaceutical Co., LTD., Haikou 570311, China; 3. School of Business Administration, Shenyang Pharmaceutical University, Shenyang 110016, China
  • 出版日期:2020-09-20 发布日期:2020-09-15

Research on Prediction of the Scale of OTC Drug Market in China Based on Quantitative Analysis

Xu Yang 1*, Xu Lang 2, Xue Aoming 3   

  1. 1. Hainan Bikai Pharmaceutical Co., LTD., Haikou 570311, China; 2. Hainan Huiyuantang Pharmaceutical Co., LTD., Haikou 570311, China; 3. School of Business Administration, Shenyang Pharmaceutical University, Shenyang 110016, China
  • Online:2020-09-20 Published:2020-09-15
  • Contact: Xu Yang, master of marketing, pharmaceutical engineer. Major research area: innovative drug development and market strategy research. Tel: 13907560217, E-mail: xy0025@hotmail.com. E-mail:xy0025@hotmail.com

PDF

447

摘要： Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors, so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market. Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test, Granger causality test and co-integration test. Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market, OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential. Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive, the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%, 5.86% and 5.90%, respectively.

关键词: quantitative analysis, OTC drugs, prediction of the scale of market, unit root test, granger causality test, co-integration test

Abstract: Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors, so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market. Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test, Granger causality test and co-integration test. Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market, OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential. Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive, the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%, 5.86% and 5.90%, respectively.

Key words: quantitative analysis, OTC drugs, prediction of the scale of market, unit root test, granger causality test, co-integration test

版权所有 © 2019 《亚洲社会药学》

本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发