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摘要： Objective To identify the critical risks in the process of innovative drug research and development, and to provide reference for improving the efficiency of innovative drug development and risk control in China. Methods Expert investigation and analytic hierarchy process were used to determine the weights of different risks. Results and Conclusion The research and analysis results showed that the risks at different stages of development had different effects on the success rate of drug development, among which the risk at the drug discovery stage influenced the most. In the drug discovery stage, inappropriate target selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development. The lack of appropriate cell tissue or animal models had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from the discovery of a compound to the application for clinical trials. The difference in changes between nonclinical and clinical studies had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from early clinical studies to pivotal clinical studies. Incorrect dose selection had the greatest impact on the success rate of drug development from pivotal clinical studies to marketing authorization applications. The biggest impact from the marketing authorization application to the approval stage was inadequate communication with regulators. After investigating the weight of risk factors in the process of innovative drug development based on scientific methods, a new perspective for the risk control of new drug development and improving the research and development efficiency is provided.
